WTNT44 KNHC 090855 RRA

TCDAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  45

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016



SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS BECOME A

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION NOW LOCATED

MORE THAN 150 NMI NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CENTER. DESPITE THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATE

THAT STRONG WINDS PERSIST NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE

CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION COMPLETED

EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATED THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS

WERE OCCURING SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE MATTHEW'S

CENTER SHORTLY, RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GLOBAL

AND REGIONAL MODELS FORECAST MATTHEW TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT

48 HOURS, AND THAT TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST. IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME PERIOD, MATTHEW'S

CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.



A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY, AIRCRAFT DATA, AND

COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING 065/12

KT.  MATTHEW IS NOW FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY

FLOW, AND THIS DEEP-LAYER STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE

CYCLONE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH

CAROLINA TODAY. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND

SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MATTHEW DISSIPATES IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE NEW=