WTNT44 KNHC 081500 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  42

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016



AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND LAND-BASED RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE

CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CROSSED THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR

THE CAPE ROMAIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.



THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE

SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING, AND

THE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS IS NOW NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DATA FROM

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 1200 UTC INDICATED

THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 65 KT. (VERY RECENT

SFMR WINDS OF 78 KT WERE TAKEN OVER SHALLOW WATER WHERE THE

INSTRUMENT IS AFFECTED BY SHOALING AND PROVIDES UNRELIABLE OUTPUT).

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE UKMET, FORECAST

THAT MATTHEW WILL BECOME ENTANGLED WITH A COLD FRONT, AND THE NEW

NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR MATTHEW TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THIS

FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DURING THE NEXT 12

TO 24 HOURS, WHILE THE MATTHEW IS HUGGING THE US COAST AND TAKING ON

A MORE EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE, THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND

CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



MATTHEW IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE STEERING

PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND ON THIS

BASIS THE NHC FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE EASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES

ABSORBED.  PREVIOUS NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOLLOWED THE EMCWF IN=