WTNT44 KNHC 080858 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  41

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016



COASTAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO DEPICT A

40-NMI WIDE EYE WITH A BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE

NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT ALONG THE COASTS OF EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA

AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM TYBEE ISLAND NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE ENTRANCE

OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE WIND

DATA, ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS, INDICATE THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF

80 KT ARE OCCURING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON

700-MB MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 108 KT, PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS

OF 83 KT, AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 100-102 KT BETWEEN 8000-11000

FT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/10 KT. MATTHEW MADE A NORTHWARD

JOG SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT NOW APPEARS TO MOVING

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND RECON FIXES.

HOWEVER, THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION EARLIER HAS INCREASED THE

POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER OF MATTHEW'S EYE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE

COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE

CYCLONE TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL,

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LASH MUCH OF THE

COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO A POSITION JUST

EAST OF CHARLESTON HARBOR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE MODELS

ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MATTHEW TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS=