WTNT44 KNHC 080259 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  40

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016



COASTAL DOPPLER RADAR DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS

GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  THE EYEWALL HAS BROKEN OPEN

WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND JUST NORTH OF THE

CENTER, AND THERE IS NOW LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN

QUADRANT.  A COMBINATION OF RADAR WINDS AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA

SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST

ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/10 KT.  DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS,

MATTHEW SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE

SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH

LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, HAS THE CENTER

MOVING NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT

12-18 HOURS, THEN NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM 18-36 HOURS.

WHILE THIS OCCURS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN

APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY

WEAKENING, AND MATTHEW IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM

BY 36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT

MATTHEW COULD MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT ABOUT 36 HOURS,

ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FORECASTS THE

SYSTEM TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.



THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS BECOME VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER

36 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE DIVERSITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THE GFDL AND

HWRF FORECAST MATTHEW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME AN=