WTNT44 KNHC 071459 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS, AND THE EYE IS NOT VERY DISTINCT. HOWEVER, THE SFMR AND

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 105 KT.



MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6

TO 12 HOURS, BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER PACE IN

24 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR INCREASES, AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD, MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MATTHEW IS

REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

ENCOUNTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD

STEER THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE

NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST

TO CHANGE AGAIN AND A WEAKENING MATTHEW SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHWARD

AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE

NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD

FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HOURS, MODELS

CONTINUE TO VARY THE FLOW PATTERN AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK

FORECAST IS LOW.





KEY MESSAGES:



1.  WE HAVE BEEN VERY FORTUNATE THAT MATTHEW'S CATEGORY 3 WINDS HAVE

REMAINED A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST THUS FAR,

BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A REASON TO LET DOWN OUR GUARD.  ONLY A

SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THESE=