WTNT44 KNHC 070257 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016



THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MATTHEW HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS, WITH AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE CIRCULAR CENTRAL

DENSE OVERCAST AND AN INCREASE IN THE OUTER BANDING.  REPORTS FROM

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THE

PRESENCE OF CENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH DIAMETERS OF ABOUT 8 AND 60 N MI

RESPECTIVELY.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT EARLIER REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE

OF 937 MB, AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED

ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 109 KT FROM THE SFMR AND A PRESSURE OF

939 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 115 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/11 KT. FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, MATTHEW

SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH

THE MOTION GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.

DURING THIS TIME, THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE

VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,

THE ECMWF, GFS, AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF THE

HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AND THEN MOVING NEAR THE COASTS

OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS NUDGED

A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS

FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OF MATTHEW, AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE

FORECASTS A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY MOTION IN RESPONSE. WHILE

THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD, THE GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET ARE IN

BETTER AGREEMENT THAT MATTHEW SHOULD MOVE SOUTH BETWEEN THE RIDGE=