WTNT44 KNHC 062052 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016



A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REACHED MATTHEW AND MEASURED 121

KT AT THE 700-MB LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF OF 936 MB. UNTIL

THE PLANE FINISHES SAMPLING THE CIRCULATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS KEPT AT 120 KT.  THERE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS

TRYING TO FORM, AND PERHAPS AN EYEWALL CYCLE WILL OCCUR. IF SO, SOME

WEAKENING COULD OCCUR, BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE FLUCTUATIONS IN

INTENSITY WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA

THAT ARE NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN HERE. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE COMBINATION

OF LAND INTERACTION AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHEAR SHOULD

CAUSE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

SHIPS GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IT FOLLOWS THE TREND

OF THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.



SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT MATTHEW IS STILL MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE STEERING FLOW HAS

NOT CHANGED, AND MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS PORTION OF THE NHC FORECAST IS

VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE

HURRICANE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES

AND SHOULD TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO. THEN THE STEERING

PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AGAIN, AND THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES

HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TURN A MUCH WEAKER

MATTHEW SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE=