WTNT44 KNHC 061456 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO

IMPROVE, WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION,

AND T-NUMBERS ARE OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  DATA

FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TRAVERSING THE EYE OF THE

HURRICANE ALSO INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 120 KT, BASED MAINLY ON SFMR DATA

AND AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION TODAY WHILE MATTHEW APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA.  AFTER 24 HOURS, LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME

WEAKENING, AND LATER IN THE PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A

MORE RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT

INTENSIFICATION, AND FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE CONSENSUS

THEREAFTER.



AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR

325 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE STEERING FLOW HAS NOT CHANGED AND MATTHEW

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36

HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING

THE HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN SHARPLY TURN EASTWARD

WHILE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST

TO CHANGE AGAIN AND A WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN

SOUTHWARD.



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