WTNT44 KNHC 060254 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016



DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

SHOWED LOWER WINDS IN MATTHEW THAN SEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS

MISSION, WITH PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT AND ESTIMATES

NEAR 95 KT FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT.  BASED ON THESE, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 100 KT.  HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY

INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE

EYE TRYING TO RE-APPEAR AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  IN

ADDITION, THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI WIDE AND THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 961 MB.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS ARE

ABOUT TO INCREASE.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/9.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE

SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  MATTHEW

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER MATTHEW GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER NEAR ANDROS

ISLAND AND NEW PROVIDENCE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, AND THEN VERY NEAR THE

EASTERN COAST OF THE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS PART OF THE

FORECAST TRACK IS WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS, BUT IT LIES

NEAR THE GFS, ECMWF, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  FROM 48-72 HOURS, THE

CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE

OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  AFTER 72 HOURS, THE TRACK GUIDANCE

BECOME VERY DIVERGENT, WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A CONTINUED=