WTNT44 KNHC 052040 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016



DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO

INDICATED THAT THE STRUCTURE OF MATTHEW HAD NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH,

AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 105 KT. ANOTHER HURRICANE

HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE EYE SOON.   THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO

BE FAVORABLE FOR MATTHEW TO RESTRENGTHEN WHILE IT APPROACHES THE

THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT

TIME, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, RESULTING IN

GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE.



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS STILL STRONG, AND THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND

THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN

FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,

ALLOWING MATTHEW TO MOVE NORTHWARD VERY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH

FLORIDA EAST COAST, AND THEN NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA AND

SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODELS

DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD

TOWARD LAND, AND THE ECMWF KEEPING MATTHEW OVER THE ATLANTIC A GOOD

DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MATTHEW OVER WATER

IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS.



KEY MESSAGES:



1.  MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE DEVASTATING IMPACTS FROM STORM

SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS IN THE BAHAMAS.  PLEASE

CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AND OTHER=