WTNT44 KNHC 051454 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016



BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES HAVE BEEN IN THE EYE

OF MATTHEW DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DATA FROM THOSE PLANES

INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING FROM THE

PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HAITI. THE EYE IS

BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE. BASED ON SFMR WINDS OF

103 KT AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND OF 118 KT, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS 105 KT.



THE ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA IS FAVORABLE FOR

MATTHEW TO RESTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, RESULTING IN

GRADUAL WEAKENING.



FIXES FROM THE PLANES INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 TO 10 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS AMPLIFYING AS ANTICIPATED BY THE

GLOBAL MODELS.  THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE

TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT TIME

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING MATTHEW TO MOVE NORTHWARD VERY

NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF

THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD, MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY.

SOME TRACK MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE

ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF REDUCE THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD

SPEED WITH A SOUTHWARD TURN. THIS CHANGE IN THESE TWO VALUABLE

MODELS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST.=