WTNT44 KNHC 042059 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016



THE EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS IT WAS EARLIER

TODAY, AND THE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE

CYCLONE IS A LITTLE WEAKER DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY

HIGH TERRAIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 120 KT AND

SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WHILE MATTHEW'S

CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ONCE

MATTHEW MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE

HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY 4 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 3 DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE OF THE

WIND SHEAR.



EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES, SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM

CUBA INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES

AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW

AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL

MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE

HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE

WATERS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE MOST INTERESTING CHANGE THIS

AFTERNOON IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS FORECAST A STRONGER WESTERN ATLANTIC

RIDGE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS EVOLUTION RESULTED IN AN

ADDITIONAL LEFTWARD SHIFT OF THE ECMWF TRACK AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE

NHC FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT, NECESSITATING THE

SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH IN FLORIDA. BEYOND 3

DAYS, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING MATTHEW TO

TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.=