WTNT44 KNHC 041506 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016



THE EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS QUITE DISTINCT WHEN IT MADE

LANDFALL NEAR LES ANGLAIS, HAITI AT 1100 UTC THIS MORNING,

BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON CONVENTIONAL

IMAGERY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED SFMR WINDS OF 118 KT

EARLIER TODAY, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED YET BY THE

PLANE. ON THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 125 KT IN

THIS ADVISORY. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING COULD OCCUR TODAY WHILE MATTHEW

INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA AND HAITI, BUT THE

ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY 4

STATUS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN INCREASE OF THE WIND SHEAR.



RADAR FIXES FROM CUBA AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MATTHEW IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 9 KT.  THE HURRICANE

IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE

WESTWARD, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE WATERS JUST EAST

OF FLORIDA. BEYOND 3 DAYS, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD

ALLOWING MATTHEW TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE

STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL

EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER OF MATTHEW. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWS A

STRONG HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST

UNITED STATES FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5.=