WTNT44 KNHC 040853 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MATTHEW REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS

MORNING. THE EYE WAS OBSCURED DURING PART OF THE NIGHT, BUT HAS

BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND SLIGHTLY LARGER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF

HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE AIR

FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700-MB

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 142 KT, AND SFMR WINDS OF 127 KT IN THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  DURING THE FINAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EYE A

LITTLE BEFORE 0500 UTC, THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF

934 MB. THESE DATA STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT.

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN

MATTHEW BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING.



RECENT SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT MATTHEW IS STILL

MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 005/8 KT.  MATTHEW IS EXPECTED

TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF

MATTHEW NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI WITHIN THE

NEXT FEW HOURS, AND NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA LATER TODAY. AFTER

MOVING NORTH OF CUBA, MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO TURN

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS, AS THE WESTERN

PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF

THE HURRICANE.  BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 4, MATTHEW SHOULD ROUND THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD, THEN

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST

COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE=