WTNT44 KNHC 040257 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016



AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING MEASURED

TWO PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL, ALONG

WITH A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 129 KT. THE LOWEST PRESSURE

MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE HAS BEEN 934 MB, DOWN 6 MB SINCE THE

PREVIOUS FLIGHT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 125 KT.



MATTHEW CONTINUES TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH, OR 010/07 KT.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST

REASONING. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN

PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,

FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. THAT

PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BRINGING MATTHEW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA

OF HAITI TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. BEYOND 48

HOURS, THE GFS HAS AGAIN TRENDED WESTWARD, AND NOW LIES CLOSER TO

THE UKMET MODEL TRACK. THIS CHANGE MIGHT BE RELATED TO THE

MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO SPLIT, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION

LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING WHILE THE SOUTHERN

PORTION CUTS OF INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER

THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY 36-48 HOURS.   THE NEW TRACK

FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO FLORIDA, AND LIES

NEAR A BLEND OF THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.



ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE=