WTNT44 KNHC 032035 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016



MATTHEW'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH TODAY.  THE MOST RECENT AIR

FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION FOUND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 124

KT ON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL, AND A PEAK

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 118 KT.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY AROUND 940 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

MATTHEW'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE, WITH A 15 N MI

WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C OR COLDER AND

EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY

IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF

SOME POSSIBLE WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND

EASTERN CUBA.  HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE

TO EYEWALL CYCLES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. WHILE MATTHEW IS

EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AS THE

SHEAR INCREASES SOMEWHAT AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES A

LITTLE, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THE

NEXT 5 DAYS, AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST INTENSITY

CONSENSUS THROUGH 4 DAYS AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL AT DAY 5.



MATTHEW IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH, OR 010/06.

THE SHORT TERM TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED, AS THE

HURRICANE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS

AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE=