WTNT44 KNHC 030257 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016



ALTHOUGH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING

MATTHEW THIS EVENING HAS YET TO REPORT FLIGHT-LEVEL OR SURFACE

WINDS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE 130-KT WINDS MEASURED IN THE PREVIOUS

FLIGHT, RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE

PRESSURE AND 700-MB HEIGHT HAVE BOTH DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS

FLIGHT. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AROUND THE 8-12 NMI DIAMETER EYE. GIVEN THE

LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 943 MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 120 KT

ON THE DVORAK PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP, THE SMALL EYE, AND RECENT

NHC OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF T6.3/123 KT TO T6.5/127 KT, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO MEANDER AND WOBBLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS, BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE FORWARD MOTION BASED ON RECENT

RECON FIXES IS 360/04 KT. ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION COULD STILL

OCCUR DUE TO MATTHEW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND

MID-/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX LOCATED ABOUT 150 NMI EAST OF MATTHEW, THE

CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR THE

NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER CLEARING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA,

MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN

SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE

LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. THE 12Z UKMET AND 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS NOW=