WTNT44 KNHC 022038 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016



AFTER TEMPORARILY LOSING SOME OF ITS ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING,

MATTHEW HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE IN ITS APPEARANCE.  THE

EYE, WHILE NOT QUITE CLEARED OUT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, HAS BECOME MORE

DISTINCT DURING THE DAY AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A

BIT MORE SYMMETRIC.  CONSISTENT WITH THESE CHANGES, OBSERVATIONS

FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATED THAT SOME

STRENGTHENING HAS TAKEN PLACE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET

TO 125 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS, SFMR-OBSERVED

SURFACE WINDS, AND EYEWALL DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT.



DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER MATTHEW

SHOULD REMAIN LOW OR AT MOST MODERATE AT LEAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE

MOVES NEAR THE BAHAMAS, WHICH WOULD IMPLY LITTLE DECREASE IN

INTENSITY.  HOWEVER, INTERACTIONS WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE SOME

WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ASIDE FROM THAT, SOME

FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE LATEST MODEL

CONSENSUS.



EARLIER TODAY, THE HURRICANE MEANDERED WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS,

BUT RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS

NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT SLOWLY, AT AROUND 4 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST

REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN

SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH=