WTNT44 KNHC 020859 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016



THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE

OVERNIGHT, WITH THE SMALL EYE REMAINING DISTINCT IN INFRARED

SATELLITE PICTURES.  A VERY RECENT AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED

NO INDICATION OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, BUT THERE WAS A NOTABLE DRY

SLOT BETWEEN THE INNER CORE AND THE OUTER BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN

PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS

DECREASED SLIGHTLY AT 0600 UTC, THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE CI

NUMBERS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL

REMAIN 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MATTHEW THIS

MORNING, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE HURRICANE'S

CURRENT STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS PREDICTED

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A

POWERFUL HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS OF THE GREATER

ANTILLES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE BAHAMAS, AND WARM WATERS IN

THAT AREA SHOULD ALLOW MATTHEW TO MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS INTENSITY

WHILE IT MOVES OVER THAT AREA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.



MATTHEW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST

FEW HOURS, BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWEST OR 320

DEGREES AT 4 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED

FROM BEFORE.  MATTHEW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY,

AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH=