WTNT44 KNHC 020252 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016



RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE STRUCTURE OF MATTHEW HAS

CHANGED LITTLE, AND THE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED AT 130 KT. THE

HURRICANE SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS, BUT MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE UNTIL

IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA IN

ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. ONCE MATTHEW REACHES THE BAHAMAS, THE

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS WILL FAVOR SOME

RESTRENGTHENING. IN THE MEAN TIME, SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN

INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERNAL DYNAMICS, INCLUDING EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLES, THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED HERE. A BETTER ESTIMATE

OF THE INTENSITY CAN BE OBTAINED WHEN THE NEXT AIR FORCE PLANE

REACHES MATTHEW AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SUNDAY.



A VERY CONVENIENT SSMIS PASS AT 0006 UTC WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE

EYE OF MATTHEW, AND AFTER A PERIOD OF LITTLE OR NO MOTION, THE

HURRICANE HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 6

KT. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED, AND THE MOTION OF THE

HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS REMAINS CONTROLLED BY A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL

TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL STEER MATTHEW TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD WESTERN HAITI, EASTERN CUBA,

AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PORTION OF THE NHC

FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE

OVERALL GUIDANCE, PRIMARILY THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72=