WTNT44 KNHC 010259 RRA

TCDAT4



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016



AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK SFMR WIND

OF 143 KT AND THEN 138 KT DURING THIS MISSION'S EYE PENETRATIONS.

FURTHERMORE, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY

WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.

THE RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN ABOVE 7.0 SINCE

2100 UTC. ON THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO

140 KT, MAKING MATTHEW A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE

WIND SCALE. THIS IS THE FIRST CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC

BASIN SINCE HURRICANE FELIX IN 2007.



MATTHEW PROBABLY IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN

A SIMILAR STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. DATA FROM THE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW AN INCIPIENT OUTER BAND OF MAXIMUM

WINDS, INDICATING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR

SOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, AND GIVEN

THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, SOME

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO BE A

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERN

CUBA. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF

CUBA.  IT IS NOTED THAT NONE THE GUIDANCE EVER INDICATED THE RAPID

STRENGTHENING OF MATTHEW.



MATTHEW IS STILL MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

STEERED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.=