WTPZ44 KNHC 291456

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016

800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016



Ulika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this

morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the

east of the estimated low-level center location.  The initial

intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from

SAB and TAFB.  A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of

Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36

hours.  Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should

degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.



The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion

is estimated to be around 320/6 kt.  The flow on the southern side

of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward

the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days.  The

official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks

and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.



The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific

Hurricane Center.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Pasch