WTPA42 PHFO 270242 RRA

TCDCP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192016

500 PM HST MON SEP 26 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS SHOWN LITTLE SIGN OF IMPROVING

ORGANIZATION TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A

ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION DECREASED

SINCE LAST NIGHT AND HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CENTER, THOUGH

THE CIRCULATION IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A 1.5 FROM JTWC TO A 2.0 OUT

OF HFO AND SAB TO 2.5 FROM TAFB. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING

CLIPPED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWED SOME 30 KT

WIND RETRIEVALS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THIS DATA AND THE

DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.



SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE

SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 82C SSTS. A DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL

PROVIDE OUTFLOW, THOUGH IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR, AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUGHLY WEST TO

EAST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE SHORT TERM. THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW

FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING TO A

REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE

PRIOR ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO SHIPS.



A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH,

AND ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED FAR TO THE NORTH NEAR=