WTPZ42 KNHC 200851 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016

200 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016



PAINE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY LOSE ORGANIZATION, WITH A DISORGANIZED

AREA OF DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND

NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY

IS SET AT 50 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM

TAFB AND SAB.  THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A VERY

HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SSTS BELOW 22

DEG C.  CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PAINE SHOULD BE

REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE

NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SINCE THERE IS NOW ONLY A

SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE

PENINSULA, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DOWNGRADED THE TROPICAL

STORM WARNING TO A WATCH.



BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES, WHICH SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE

LOCATED ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS, THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/11.  PAINE OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD

CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE, AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST, UNTIL

DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY A

BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.



DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PAINE OR ITS REMNANTS IS

EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THESE

AREAS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=