WTPZ42 KNHC 190238 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016

900 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016



PAINE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING.  THE CONVECTIVE

BANDING HAS IMPROVED, WITH A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOW APPARENT IN

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES.  THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS

FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5/55 KT, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM

UW/CIMSS HAVE CLIMBED TO T3.8 OR ABOUT 60 KT, WHICH IS THE BASIS

FOR THE 60-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  PAINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A

LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE IT REMAINS

OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING AND PAINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT

OR EARLY MONDAY.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST

TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING.

PAINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS, AND

DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW

THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF

MODEL.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/13 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST

TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN

AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER

NORTHERN MEXICO.  AS PAINE WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW

SYSTEM, IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN DISSIPATE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS

TAKE A STRONGER SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO, BUT GIVEN THE

HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAJA=