WTNT82 EGRR 151619 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2016 0 36.4N 51.8W 994 47 0000UTC 16.09.2016 12 40.2N 46.9W 988 54 1200UTC 16.09.2016 24 45.7N 38.9W 980 59 0000UTC 17.09.2016 36 53.1N 29.6W 984 47 1200UTC 17.09.2016 48 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 78.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2016 0 31.9N 78.4W 1010 31 0000UTC 16.09.2016 12 31.4N 77.1W 1009 32 1200UTC 16.09.2016 24 31.1N 76.4W 1010 32 0000UTC 17.09.2016 36 30.8N 76.5W 1009 28 1200UTC 17.09.2016 48 31.0N 76.7W 1010 29 0000UTC 18.09.2016 60 31.1N 77.1W 1008 32 1200UTC 18.09.2016 72 31.1N 77.4W 1008 28 0000UTC 19.09.2016 84 31.3N 77.3W 1007 27 1200UTC 19.09.2016 96 31.5N 77.1W 1006 30 0000UTC 20.09.2016 108 32.6N 75.5W 1003 35 1200UTC 20.09.2016 120 33.0N 73.8W 1001 40 0000UTC 21.09.2016 132 32.8N 72.2W 1001 39 1200UTC 21.09.2016 144 32.4N 71.9W 1003 36 HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 121.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2016 0 19.7N 121.6W 984 53 0000UTC 16.09.2016 12 19.2N 123.5W 989 50 1200UTC 16.09.2016 24 18.9N 125.9W 993 46 0000UTC 17.09.2016 36 18.5N 128.7W 996 41 1200UTC 17.09.2016 48 18.2N 131.7W 999 38 0000UTC 18.09.2016 60 18.0N 134.5W 1002 33 1200UTC 18.09.2016 72 17.8N 137.3W 1003 34 0000UTC 19.09.2016 84 17.5N 139.4W 1002 30 1200UTC 19.09.2016 96 17.6N 141.1W 1002 30 0000UTC 20.09.2016 108 18.0N 142.5W 1002 34 1200UTC 20.09.2016 120 18.5N 143.9W 1004 32 0000UTC 21.09.2016 132 19.0N 145.3W 1006 31 1200UTC 21.09.2016 144 19.2N 147.2W 1008 29 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 29.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2016 0 18.0N 29.3W 1008 36 0000UTC 16.09.2016 12 18.0N 32.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 16.09.2016 24 18.0N 34.4W 1008 35 0000UTC 17.09.2016 36 17.7N 36.6W 1010 33 1200UTC 17.09.2016 48 17.7N 38.3W 1009 28 0000UTC 18.09.2016 60 17.3N 40.4W 1010 26 1200UTC 18.09.2016 72 17.7N 42.8W 1009 27 0000UTC 19.09.2016 84 18.9N 45.8W 1009 28 1200UTC 19.09.2016 96 19.6N 48.0W 1009 30 0000UTC 20.09.2016 108 20.9N 50.2W 1007 32 1200UTC 20.09.2016 120 22.2N 52.5W 1005 36 0000UTC 21.09.2016 132 23.4N 54.4W 1002 42 1200UTC 21.09.2016 144 24.4N 56.2W 1001 40 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 15.1N 108.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.09.2016 60 15.8N 108.1W 1002 25 1200UTC 18.09.2016 72 17.9N 111.2W 1000 32 0000UTC 19.09.2016 84 19.3N 113.0W 995 39 1200UTC 19.09.2016 96 21.4N 114.2W 992 45 0000UTC 20.09.2016 108 24.6N 115.1W 988 50 1200UTC 20.09.2016 120 27.7N 115.1W 997 36 0000UTC 21.09.2016 132 31.7N 113.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 21.09.2016 144 35.5N 110.9W 1003 22 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.4N 26.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.09.2016 96 15.4N 26.8W 1007 30 0000UTC 20.09.2016 108 16.1N 29.9W 1006 32 1200UTC 20.09.2016 120 18.1N 31.9W 1004 42 0000UTC 21.09.2016 132 19.8N 34.0W 1003 43 1200UTC 21.09.2016 144 20.4N 36.1W 1001 44 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.0N 133.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 21.09.2016 132 12.0N 133.3W 1008 27 1200UTC 21.09.2016 144 12.8N 133.5W 1007 28 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151618