WTNT82 EGRR 150419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 53.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2016 0 33.6N 53.5W 997 44 1200UTC 15.09.2016 12 36.1N 52.0W 993 50 0000UTC 16.09.2016 24 39.5N 47.4W 987 57 1200UTC 16.09.2016 36 44.5N 39.9W 978 59 0000UTC 17.09.2016 48 51.6N 30.9W 981 48 1200UTC 17.09.2016 60 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 79.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2016 0 31.9N 79.9W 1012 26 1200UTC 15.09.2016 12 32.0N 78.8W 1011 30 0000UTC 16.09.2016 24 31.5N 78.3W 1010 29 1200UTC 16.09.2016 36 31.9N 77.3W 1011 29 0000UTC 17.09.2016 48 31.3N 77.5W 1011 28 1200UTC 17.09.2016 60 31.5N 77.9W 1011 27 0000UTC 18.09.2016 72 31.7N 78.2W 1011 24 1200UTC 18.09.2016 84 31.2N 78.3W 1011 22 0000UTC 19.09.2016 96 31.3N 78.2W 1010 21 1200UTC 19.09.2016 108 31.5N 77.4W 1010 24 0000UTC 20.09.2016 120 32.0N 75.7W 1008 26 1200UTC 20.09.2016 132 32.2N 73.4W 1006 30 0000UTC 21.09.2016 144 33.1N 71.0W 1004 31 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 120.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2016 0 20.4N 120.2W 987 56 1200UTC 15.09.2016 12 20.3N 121.6W 998 39 0000UTC 16.09.2016 24 20.3N 123.6W 1002 35 1200UTC 16.09.2016 36 20.4N 126.0W 1006 30 0000UTC 17.09.2016 48 20.5N 128.2W 1007 27 1200UTC 17.09.2016 60 20.4N 130.3W 1009 24 0000UTC 18.09.2016 72 CEASED TRACKING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 26.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2016 0 17.5N 26.8W 1009 33 1200UTC 15.09.2016 12 18.0N 29.0W 1008 34 0000UTC 16.09.2016 24 18.1N 31.6W 1009 32 1200UTC 16.09.2016 36 18.0N 34.0W 1009 34 0000UTC 17.09.2016 48 17.4N 36.3W 1009 30 1200UTC 17.09.2016 60 16.8N 38.4W 1010 27 0000UTC 18.09.2016 72 16.5N 39.7W 1010 25 1200UTC 18.09.2016 84 16.6N 41.8W 1009 23 0000UTC 19.09.2016 96 17.2N 44.0W 1010 25 1200UTC 19.09.2016 108 18.4N 46.2W 1010 26 0000UTC 20.09.2016 120 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.8N 106.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2016 60 14.8N 106.7W 1001 29 0000UTC 18.09.2016 72 16.7N 108.3W 995 40 1200UTC 18.09.2016 84 18.0N 110.9W 985 52 0000UTC 19.09.2016 96 19.7N 112.5W 982 49 1200UTC 19.09.2016 108 21.9N 113.7W 977 55 0000UTC 20.09.2016 120 24.7N 114.4W 980 55 1200UTC 20.09.2016 132 27.8N 114.6W 993 42 0000UTC 21.09.2016 144 31.4N 114.0W 998 39 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.8N 21.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.09.2016 84 14.3N 22.5W 1005 30 0000UTC 19.09.2016 96 14.9N 24.7W 1002 34 1200UTC 19.09.2016 108 15.5N 27.5W 1000 41 0000UTC 20.09.2016 120 16.7N 29.2W 998 46 1200UTC 20.09.2016 132 18.8N 31.9W 994 53 0000UTC 21.09.2016 144 19.2N 34.2W 993 52 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.2N 136.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.09.2016 132 12.2N 136.7W 1007 22 0000UTC 21.09.2016 144 12.3N 137.5W 1006 23 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150418