WTNT42 KNHC 230852 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS

AGO AND MUCH BETTER THAN 2 DAYS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL

LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS

MORE SYMMETRIC, AND THE OUTFLOW IS BETTER DEFINED.  TONIGHT'S

UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION WAS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE

HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE THAT JUST LEFT THE CYCLONE. THE ESTIMATED

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB, AND THERE WERE NUMEROUS

REPORTS OF 45- TO 55-KT WINDS WITH A PEAK OF 60 KT AT 850 MB.  A

NOAA PLANE JUST ARRIVED TO THE STORM AND MEASURED A FLIGHT-LEVEL

WIND OF 61 KT.  THESE WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.



KARL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS WHILE IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR.

AFTER THAT TIME, KARL SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC

MID-LATITUDE FLOW, AND IN 3 DAYS, KARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IT WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY A

MUCH LARGER CYCLONE BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR

TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT THIS ONE REFLECTS A LITTLE STRONGER CYCLONE

IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE CURRENT

ORGANIZATION TREND.



FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE GIVE A MOTION OF

325 DEGREES AT 13 KT. KARL IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO

TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SOON THEREAFTER, KARL

IS FORECAST TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST-MOVING WESTERLY FLOW=