WTNT42 KNHC 230251 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016



REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT KARL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING

THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH DROPSONDE DATA SHOWING THAT A WELL-DEFINED

CIRCULATION NOW EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 400 MB.  THE MAXIMUM

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 56 KT AT 8000 FT, AND THERE WERE NUMEROUS

SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1001 MB BASED ON A 1003

MB DROPSONDE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND

OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 40

KT.  ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE STARTING AT ABOUT

0600 UTC.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/14 AS KARL CONTINUES MOVING

NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, KARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN

NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE INTO THE

WESTERLIES.  SUBSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE

NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH

THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORECAST

FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF

AND THE OTHER FASTER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REMAINS DOWN

THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE AND OVERALL IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

TRACK.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE CLOSER TO

BERMUDA, WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH NOW FORECAST BETWEEN=