WTNT42 KNHC 221449 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016



EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING, KARL'S CENTER HAS

STILL BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, AND IT'S UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WELL

DEFINED IT IS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE

YESTERDAY, BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER ELONGATED FROM

THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY IN

SITU DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.



KARL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP

TEMPORARILY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/15 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS

MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A

MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH DURING THE NEXT FEW

DAYS, TURNING NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AND THEN ACCELERATING

NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 48 HOURS.  BASED

ON THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS

SHIFTED A BIT LEFT OF THE POSITIONS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.  AS A RESULT, THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS, LYING CLOSE TO THE

ECMWF SOLUTION AS WELL AS THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  EVEN

WITH THIS SHIFT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE EASTERN

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



KARL LIES RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF A ZONE OF HIGHER SHEAR TO ITS

WEST, AND THE VARIOUS ANALYSES ARE SHOWING ABOUT 15 KT OF

SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO=