WTNT41 KNHC 181457 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016

1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016



AFTER AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION, STRONG NORTHERLY

SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE

CONVECTION, LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION ABOUT 50-60 NMI

EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 25 KT,

WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE, BASED ON A TAFB SATELLITE

CLASSIFICATION OF T1.5/25 KT.



JULIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, BUT A SLOW

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BEGIN LATER

TODAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES

MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD, CREATING INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING JULIA TO

WEAKEN INTO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72

HOURS, WHEREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS

MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DEEPER CYCLONE AND LIFT IT OUT POLEWARD IN THE

DEEPER STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS

JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER AND DEEPER, TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND

NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, RAPID

WEAKENING IS LIKELY BY 72 HOURS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR,

LEAVING JULIA AS A REMNANT LOW NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.=