WTNT41 KNHC 162041 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016



SATELLITE DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE

THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN MOST PARTS OF THE

CIRCULATION, AND THE CENTER IS NOW WELL EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE

NEAR 1008 MB AND SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 35 KT WITHIN 30 N

MI OF THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THESE DATA ARE THE

BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY 35 KT.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.  CURRENTLY, JULIA IS

IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 25-35 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, AND THIS

HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER

THAT TIME, THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHEAR

SHOULD DECREASE.  HOWEVER, IT IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT THAT

MEANS FOR THE CYCLONE.  THE CANADIAN AND UKMET CONTINUE TO FORECAST

A STRONGER SYSTEM, WHILE THE GFS, ECMWF, AND HWRF FORECAST JULIA TO

DISSIPATE OR REMAIN WEAK.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS, THERE IS NO

CHANGE TO THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO USED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST AGAIN IS ON THE LOW EDGE OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT JULIA WILL SURVIVE AND

RE-INTENSIFY.



JULIA APPEARS TO FINALLY HAVE STOPPED ITS EASTWARD MOTION, AND THE

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 190/3.  IN THE NEXT DAY

OR SO, THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST

BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AFTER 36 HOURS, A BAROCLINIC=