WTNT41 KNHC 140226 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016

1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016



THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA

EAST COAST HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION,

ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CLOSE TO

THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS NOW. AND WHILE

THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER ARE NOT MORE THAN

ABOUT 10 KT, THEY HAVE DEFINED A CLOSED CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION, THE

SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIABLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ADVISORIES ARE

BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM JULIA, THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF

THE 2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.



THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, WITH

THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A TRACK TO THE RIGHT

OF MUCH OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THAT TREND IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO

THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS - LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE

HWRF.  WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND, AND WESTERLY

SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, LITTLE CHANGE

IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER INLAND AND

BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  NEVERTHELESS, A SMALL AREA OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG

THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.



THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF JULIA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR

10 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MOVES. THESE RAINS=