WTPZ41 KNHC 131445 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

800 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016



ORLENE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A RECENT

MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TILTED TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM SAB, TAFB, AND THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT, AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE

GENEROUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/4.  ORLENE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A

BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS

FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS,

WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO,

FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

DURING MOST OF THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 96 HOURS,

WITH SOME DIVERGENCE AT 120 HOURS ON WHETHER ORLENE WILL TURN MORE

NORTHWARD OR CONTINUE WESTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR

TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF

CONSENSUS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.



ORLENE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO

DECREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE 26C SEA=