WTPZ41 KNHC 130845 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

200 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016



RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL OVERNIGHT, AND THE OVERALL

SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY

DEGRADE.  THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED IN INFRARED SATELLITE

PICTURES AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED

OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE THE RECENT LOSS OF ORGANIZATION, A BLEND OF THE

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT.  THE LEVELING-OFF OF ORLENE'S INTENSITY

APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY 15-20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

AS DIAGNOSED BY A UW/CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS.  THE SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE

NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TODAY.  MEANWHILE, ORLENE IS FORECAST TO

MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 36 H, WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE

UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE

GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE

SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, BUT LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. THE

NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE

NEXT 2-3 DAYS, BUT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THEREAFTER.

THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FLORIDA STATE

SUPERENSEMBLE AND CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.



IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS

ANTICIPATED, WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 360/4 KT.  ORLENE

WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS DURING THE NEXT=