WTPZ41 KNHC 110234 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016



THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  EARLIER ASCAT DATA

INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, AND THE LATEST

INFRARED IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND IN

THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT DECLARE THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB

SATELLITE ESTIMATE.  THIS IS THE EARLIEST 16TH TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE 1992.



THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR,

WARM WATERS AND A HUMID MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE FOR AT LEAST A FEW

DAYS.  THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS WHY THIS CYCLONE WOULD NOT

INTENSIFY, OTHER THAN A SOMEWHAT BROAD INITIAL WIND STRUCTURE, AND

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST GRADUAL

STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS, AND

THIS FORECAST COULD TURN OUT TO BE CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY IN A FEW

DAYS, IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN INNER CORE.  THE LONG RANGE

INTENSITY IS LEVELED OFF DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT LATITUDE THE

CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED AT AFTER DAY 3, WHICH IS PRETTY CRITICAL IN

THAT PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC DUE TO THE TIGHT SST GRADIENT.



AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  THE DEPRESSION

IS LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  A WEAKNESS IN=