WTPZ21 KNHC 150830 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.2W AT 15/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.2W AT 15/0900Z

AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 120.7W



FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.9N 122.5W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 124.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 126.9W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 129.4W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW=