WTNT82 EGRR 141619 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 53.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.09.2016 0 30.6N 53.3W 994 52 0000UTC 15.09.2016 12 33.4N 53.5W 989 52 1200UTC 15.09.2016 24 36.3N 52.3W 984 55 0000UTC 16.09.2016 36 40.0N 47.8W 974 61 1200UTC 16.09.2016 48 45.0N 40.1W 968 65 0000UTC 17.09.2016 60 53.2N 31.2W 971 52 1200UTC 17.09.2016 72 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.09.2016 0 31.3N 81.3W 1012 28 0000UTC 15.09.2016 12 31.5N 81.1W 1012 27 1200UTC 15.09.2016 24 31.2N 80.6W 1013 23 0000UTC 16.09.2016 36 31.2N 79.6W 1012 26 1200UTC 16.09.2016 48 31.3N 79.1W 1013 28 0000UTC 17.09.2016 60 31.5N 78.5W 1012 27 1200UTC 17.09.2016 72 32.0N 78.5W 1013 21 0000UTC 18.09.2016 84 32.2N 78.8W 1012 21 1200UTC 18.09.2016 96 32.7N 78.2W 1013 18 0000UTC 19.09.2016 108 32.8N 78.3W 1013 20 1200UTC 19.09.2016 120 33.1N 77.2W 1013 17 0000UTC 20.09.2016 132 CEASED TRACKING HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 119.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.09.2016 0 20.2N 119.2W 980 60 0000UTC 15.09.2016 12 20.0N 120.4W 990 52 1200UTC 15.09.2016 24 19.9N 122.1W 997 40 0000UTC 16.09.2016 36 19.9N 124.3W 999 38 1200UTC 16.09.2016 48 19.7N 127.1W 1001 36 0000UTC 17.09.2016 60 19.7N 129.8W 1003 31 1200UTC 17.09.2016 72 19.5N 132.4W 1005 30 0000UTC 18.09.2016 84 19.7N 135.1W 1005 29 1200UTC 18.09.2016 96 20.0N 137.4W 1006 27 0000UTC 19.09.2016 108 20.6N 139.5W 1007 28 1200UTC 19.09.2016 120 21.4N 140.8W 1008 27 0000UTC 20.09.2016 132 21.8N 142.3W 1008 30 1200UTC 20.09.2016 144 21.6N 144.1W 1010 28 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 16.6N 24.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.09.2016 0 16.6N 24.7W 1011 28 0000UTC 15.09.2016 12 17.0N 26.9W 1009 30 1200UTC 15.09.2016 24 17.5N 28.6W 1008 33 0000UTC 16.09.2016 36 17.8N 31.1W 1008 32 1200UTC 16.09.2016 48 17.9N 33.5W 1008 34 0000UTC 17.09.2016 60 17.5N 35.8W 1009 29 1200UTC 17.09.2016 72 17.1N 37.3W 1009 28 0000UTC 18.09.2016 84 17.0N 38.9W 1009 26 1200UTC 18.09.2016 96 17.8N 40.8W 1009 28 0000UTC 19.09.2016 108 19.2N 43.8W 1009 30 1200UTC 19.09.2016 120 19.7N 46.7W 1007 32 0000UTC 20.09.2016 132 20.8N 49.1W 1006 32 1200UTC 20.09.2016 144 21.3N 51.8W 1005 37 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.6N 106.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2016 72 14.6N 106.4W 1004 27 0000UTC 18.09.2016 84 15.8N 107.9W 1001 29 1200UTC 18.09.2016 96 18.0N 110.5W 996 40 0000UTC 19.09.2016 108 19.2N 112.1W 990 48 1200UTC 19.09.2016 120 21.3N 113.4W 984 54 0000UTC 20.09.2016 132 24.4N 114.5W 980 57 1200UTC 20.09.2016 144 27.0N 116.0W 992 42 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.5N 136.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.09.2016 84 11.0N 136.6W 1007 22 1200UTC 18.09.2016 96 11.5N 136.4W 1008 18 0000UTC 19.09.2016 108 11.7N 136.6W 1008 18 1200UTC 19.09.2016 120 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.6N 21.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.09.2016 84 12.6N 21.2W 1007 26 1200UTC 18.09.2016 96 14.3N 23.4W 1005 29 0000UTC 19.09.2016 108 15.0N 25.6W 1002 34 1200UTC 19.09.2016 120 16.2N 28.3W 998 42 0000UTC 20.09.2016 132 17.9N 29.7W 997 47 1200UTC 20.09.2016 144 19.7N 31.6W 992 55 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141619