WTNT82 EGRR 130419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 51.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.09.2016 0 23.2N 51.1W 1008 35 1200UTC 13.09.2016 12 25.3N 52.5W 1008 33 0000UTC 14.09.2016 24 27.2N 53.2W 1008 36 1200UTC 14.09.2016 36 30.0N 54.1W 1004 40 0000UTC 15.09.2016 48 32.3N 54.2W 996 44 1200UTC 15.09.2016 60 35.0N 53.0W 990 53 0000UTC 16.09.2016 72 38.3N 49.5W 979 59 1200UTC 16.09.2016 84 42.2N 43.1W 970 66 0000UTC 17.09.2016 96 46.9N 35.3W 977 59 1200UTC 17.09.2016 108 50.2N 28.9W 981 59 0000UTC 18.09.2016 120 53.0N 21.1W 988 43 1200UTC 18.09.2016 132 POST-TROPICAL HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 119.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.09.2016 0 18.6N 119.2W 960 76 1200UTC 13.09.2016 12 19.7N 119.1W 964 69 0000UTC 14.09.2016 24 20.5N 118.9W 969 70 1200UTC 14.09.2016 36 20.8N 119.0W 982 56 0000UTC 15.09.2016 48 20.9N 119.8W 988 53 1200UTC 15.09.2016 60 20.8N 121.1W 993 44 0000UTC 16.09.2016 72 20.6N 123.3W 997 39 1200UTC 16.09.2016 84 20.4N 126.1W 1000 35 0000UTC 17.09.2016 96 20.6N 128.5W 1003 31 1200UTC 17.09.2016 108 21.1N 130.6W 1004 31 0000UTC 18.09.2016 120 21.7N 132.2W 1005 26 1200UTC 18.09.2016 132 22.8N 133.4W 1008 24 0000UTC 19.09.2016 144 24.3N 134.1W 1008 30 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 17.8N 30.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2016 60 17.6N 31.0W 1009 29 0000UTC 16.09.2016 72 17.8N 31.5W 1009 33 1200UTC 16.09.2016 84 18.6N 32.6W 1008 39 0000UTC 17.09.2016 96 18.6N 33.6W 1008 33 1200UTC 17.09.2016 108 19.0N 34.4W 1008 33 0000UTC 18.09.2016 120 19.5N 36.2W 1008 31 1200UTC 18.09.2016 132 19.9N 37.9W 1008 31 0000UTC 19.09.2016 144 19.8N 40.7W 1009 31 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.5N 103.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.09.2016 96 14.5N 103.6W 1003 31 1200UTC 17.09.2016 108 15.5N 105.8W 997 40 0000UTC 18.09.2016 120 16.4N 108.5W 989 46 1200UTC 18.09.2016 132 17.1N 110.6W 982 53 0000UTC 19.09.2016 144 17.8N 112.7W 979 55 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.6N 18.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2016 108 12.9N 19.9W 1002 32 0000UTC 18.09.2016 120 14.2N 21.8W 994 48 1200UTC 18.09.2016 132 15.1N 24.1W 984 56 0000UTC 19.09.2016 144 15.7N 26.2W 984 56 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130418