WTPN31 PGTW 100900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 138.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 138.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 16.5N 136.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 17.3N 134.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 18.0N 131.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 18.8N 129.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 21.1N 124.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 23.4N 122.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 26.6N 120.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 138.0E.

TROPICAL STORM 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTH

OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.

//