WTPZ45 KNHC 061444 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016

900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016



NEWTON'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE.  THE

CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RAGGED EYE, WHICH HAS

BEEN FILLING, AND BREAKS IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.  DEEP CONVECTION

WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) IS ASYMMETRICALLY

DISTRIBUTED, AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CDO HAVE BEGUN

TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO T4.5/77

KT AND T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, RESPECTIVELY, AND THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 70 KT, A BLEND OF THESE VALUES.

THE CENTER OF NEWTON IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF

BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY, AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD

RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING.  AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES IN THE GULF OF

CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO

SPEND MUCH TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN

NORTHWESTERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WITH AN INCREASE IN

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST AROUND THAT TIME, EITHER A STEADY

INTENSITY OR SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE SECOND LANDFALL.

ONCE NEWTON MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, THE LOW- TO

MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE LIKELY TO SEPARATE WHEN THE CIRCULATION PASSES

OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL, AND RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SOME COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS

ONE, AND IS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/17.  NEWTON IS BEING STEERED

AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED=