WTPZ45 KNHC 052059 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016

300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NEWTON IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.

A RAGGED EYE HAS FORMED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE PICTURES, WITH A MORE

SYMMETRIC OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EYEWALL.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE ALREADY FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS

OF 74 KT, WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING NEWTON A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS

TIME. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE NEWTON

IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER.  THE

OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS

IN THE SHORT TERM WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

NOTE THE INTENSITY COULD PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHOWN BELOW SINCE

LANDFALL IS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO INTERACTION

WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BUT, GIVEN

THE FAST MOTION, NEWTON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST A STRONG

TROPICAL STORM UNTIL ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN SONORA.



NEWTON IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR 325/14.  NEWTON

SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48

HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE

SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE LATEST MODEL

CYCLE IS THAT ALMOST EVERYTHING IS FASTER AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF

THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE, WITH A STRONGER

NEWTON, THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD

STEER THE DEEPER STORM IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK=