WTPZ45 KNHC 042050 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016

400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016



THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  SATELLITE DATA INDICATE

THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW WELL DEFINED, AND THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY IS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM

WINDS WERE NEAR 30 KT, AND THAT IS USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.



THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE IT

HAS JUST FORMED, BUT THE BEST GUESS IS 345/2 KT.  A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE

SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD TAKE

THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS

FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE

NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE.



THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MOIST AIR, MODERATE SHEAR AND

OVER WARM WATERS.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THOSE

CONDITIONS UNTIL IT NEARS THE BAJA COAST, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS

ANTICIPATED.  ONCE IT CROSSES BAJA, LAND INTERACTION AND AN

INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.



IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FUTURE=