WTPZ25 KNHC 042049 RRA

TCMEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016

2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING

CABO SAN LUCAS.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED WITHIN 48 HOURS

OF THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   2 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z

AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.2W



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 80NE 130SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W=