WTPN31 PGTW 021500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 15W (NAMTHEUN) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   021200Z --- NEAR 27.8N 130.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF

     SATELLITE AND RADAR

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 130.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 29.1N 130.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 30.5N 130.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 32.2N 130.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 34.0N 131.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 38.4N 134.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 43.5N 139.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   EXTRATROPICAL

    ---

REMARKS:

021500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 130.8E.

TYPHOON 15W (NAMTHEUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTH OF

SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 25

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//