WTNT44 KNHC 290856 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE RAGGED THIS

MORNING, WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF

OF MEXICO OR STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS

LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING, HAS PROPAGATED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER

CUBA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA, WELL SOUTH OF THE

CENTER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR.  DATA FROM A NOAA

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT, AND WIND REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OF LOWER

CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.  THE STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY, AND THE

DEPRESSION SHOULD BE IN A MORE CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT

FOR A DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT DRY

MID-LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,

AND THAT, COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE

DEPRESSION, SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO

OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER 48 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE

SYSTEM DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING

SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A

LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR=