WTNT44 KNHC 061753 RRA

TCDAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016



BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE RISK OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COASTLINE APPEARS NOW TO BE

MINIMAL.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO DISCONTINUE THE

REMAINING COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TO TERMINATE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE.



THERE HAS AGAIN BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF HERMINE SINCE

THE LAST ADVISORY, AS IT REMAINS A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

WITH A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST

OF THE CENTER.  BUOY DATA SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS STILL SLOWLY

DECAYING, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 45

KT.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING

AND COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, AND THE

NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE WINDS DECREASING BELOW TROPICAL STORM

FORCE BY 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AFTER THAT

TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM

MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.



AFTER A BRIEF SLOWING THIS MORNING, THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE

FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/6.  OTHER THAN THAT, THE

TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A

SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION, POSSIBLY INCLUDING A CUSP OR A LOOP, IS

LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT, THE CYCLONE SHOULD

MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM.=