WTNT44 KNHC 042055 RRA

TCDAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016



SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS INDICATES THAT

HERMINE REMAINS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATE REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS

AIRCRAFT DATA.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED

TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.  THE INTENSITY TRENDS

SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD

BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST

OFFICIAL FORECAST.



VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO

TRACK FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, AND THE MOTION IS A

RATHER UNCERTAIN 070/4 KT.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING

HERMINE FROM THE WEST, AND THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS PREDICTED TO

MOVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT

DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HERMINE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND

NORTHWEST WHILE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

AFTER THAT TIME, HERMINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF

SOLUTIONS,  WITH THE FORMER MODEL MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE LATTER

ONE.  THE FORECAST FOR HERMINE HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE NOAA

OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD TODAY,=