WTNT43 KNHC 292051 RRA

TCDAT3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016

500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016



SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING

BETTER ORGANIZED.  CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN

QUADRANT, WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF

THE CYCLONE.  AIRCRAFT DATA, HOWEVER, SHOW THAT THE PRESSURE HAS

STAYED THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO AND THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED.

THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT.  THIS BURST OF CONVECTION

SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS ENVIRONMENTAL

FACTORS (LESS SHEAR AND MORE MOISTURE) ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A

LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THIS SCENARIO ON GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST

ADVISORY CYCLE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD

TOMORROW AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE

NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE

TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO

ERODE THE RIDGE AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO

THE WESTERLIES.  THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE, BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS MODEL.  THE

CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL

CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.



DUE TO THE CLOSE PASS OF THE CYCLONE TO THE OUTER BANKS, A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM=