WTNT43 KNHC 290254 RRA

TCDAT3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016

1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016



SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CURRENTLY

COMPRISED OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL

SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THIS STRUCTURE IS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF 20-25 KT

OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 30 KT, SO THAT IS THE

INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9.  FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE DEPRESSION

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

AFTER THAT TIME, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH

THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND

CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE

TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW

TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS.



THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AND FOR THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE INTO A MORE MOIST

ENVIRONMENT.  BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING

STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING, BUT IT IS ON

THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT

WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME AS FAVORABLE AS THE MODELS ARE

SUGGESTING.  AFTER RECURVATURE, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MERGE=